Our current activities include:
When a policy change or a shock affects many parts of the economy at once, we model the whole economy to estimate what it would mean for growth, prices, jobs, trade and the government budget. A tax change, a new tariff, a rise in energy prices or a shift in interest rates are typical examples. Depending on the question, we use computable general equilibrium (CGE), macroeconometric, DSGE or global VAR models.
When useful figures are spread across different spreadsheets and folders, the same number can turn up in several versions. We bring them together into one organised database, note where each figure comes from and keep it up to date, whether the data are your own or come from public sources.
We plan to publish regular forecasts of inflation and GDP growth on this website, free of charge. The same methods can be used to forecast an organisation's sales, loan demand, costs or prices from its own records and wider economic data. Each forecast comes with a likely range, not just a single number.
For firms entering a market or reviewing their prices, we estimate how large the market is, how customers are likely to respond and where the firm stands against its competitors, using survey, trade and industry data. We also measure how far a firm's costs and earnings depend on exchange rates, interest rates and energy prices, and, for lenders, how changes in these could affect borrowers' ability to repay.
Monthly or quarterly reports on the figures a client follows most closely, and short briefings on what a budget, an interest-rate decision or a change in trade rules is likely to mean for a sector. Both draw on our own economic databases.
Each piece of work follows the same three steps.
We first agree on the decision you face and the few numbers that would help you make it, so the work stays focused on what you need.
Your records are checked and joined with reliable outside sources. Your data stay confidential and are used only for your work.
You receive a short report in plain language, with the likely range of outcomes, the main assumptions and the files, so the analysis can be repeated.
Our work is aimed first at organisations that follow an economy closely: central banks and government agencies, development partners, banks and other financial institutions, large companies, and foreign investors and research teams who track a particular market. We also work with exporters, smaller firms and non-governmental organisations. Much of our experience is in Bangladesh and the Gulf, and the methods apply equally well to other economies.
If you have a question that depends on numbers, write to us and describe the decision you are facing. We will reply with a short note on how we could help and what information the work would need.
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